Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Climate change in which direction?

New Scientist reports that we could be in for a bit less warming than predicted:
Forecasts of climate change are about to go seriously out of kilter. One of the world’s top climate modellers said Thursday we could be about to enter one or even two decades during which temperatures cool.

“People will say this is global warming disappearing,” he told more than 1500 of the world’s top climate scientists gathering in Geneva at the UN’s World Climate Conference.
I bet they will.
“I am not one of the sceptics,” insisted Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University, Germany. “However, we have to ask the nasty questions ourselves or other people will do it.”
I bet they will.
[. . .] Another favourite climate nostrum was upturned when [Vicky Pope of the UK Met Office] warned that the dramatic Arctic ice loss in recent summers was partly a product of natural cycles rather than global warming. Preliminary reports suggest there has been much less melting this year than in 2007 or 2008.
It’s déjà vu all over again: as David Crosby sings, we have all been here before. When I was at school in the 60s, climate scientists were warning of cooling. When my children started school, climate scientists were warning of warming. Now they talk of cooling again. Talk about blowing hot and cold.
[. . .] In candid mood, climate scientists avoided blaming nature for their faltering predictions, however.
That’s nice of them.

And of course none of this has implications for a New Zealand ETS.

Monitor: Tim Blair

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